It’s time for another addition of my CCC rankings by 10-year YOC.
*I haven’t done one of these in a while and it feels good to start posting again. I’m excited to see what changes there might be.
What I Did
I decided to take the CCC spreadsheet and rank the stocks based on their 10-year YOC. If you are unfamiliar with what Yield-On-Cost is (YOC) then refer to my resources tab or see below for an example. If you don’t know about David Fish’s Champion, Challenger and Contender (CCC) spreadsheet then you are doing yourself a disservice, the link is also on my resources tab.
You may wonder why I care about a 10-year YOC instead of just the 1,3,5 and 10-year CAGR’s. The main factor that the CAGR leaves out is the starting dividend yield. The starting dividend in combination with the dividend growth rate will greatly influence your returns.
There’s a variation of this screen used alot by members of the Seeking Alpha community and it’s coined the “Chowder Rule”. This can also be found now on the CCC sheets. The rule basically adds the starting yield with the dividend growth rate (5-year CAGR) and looks for it to be higher than a certain number. While this can be a useful screen, there is still a discrepancy between dividend payers that have different growth rates but still arrive at the same number. For instance, a 3% yielder with 5% growth would get the same grade (an 8) as a 5% yielder with 3% growth. Holding a lower yielding stock with a higher growth rate will at some point provide higher returns assuming the growth rates don’t change. My 10-year YOC would give this 3% and 5% yielder a 4.9 and 6.7 respectively.
Why I Did It
The purpose of this screening process will be to identify companies that have a high expected dividend growth rate combined with a starting yield that would produce greater returns. These companies may be good candidates for further research.
How I Did It
Next I sorted all columns by TTM P/E and eliminated every stock with a TTM P/E over 20. I do realize this eliminates a lot of REIT’s, MLP’s, and telecom stocks. I’m ok with this since I’m not really targeting these stocks right now. Then I decided to eliminate any Champions with a 10-Year CAGR < 5%, followed by any Contenders with a 5-Year CAGR < 7 % and finally any Challengers with a 3-year CAGR < 7%. This screen eliminates a lot of slow growing companies like utilities.
This last screen dropped the list of Champions, Contenders and Challengers to 24(+1), 55(+1) and 120(+57) respectively.
Next I took the latest CCC sheet and added some new columns to calculate a 10-year YOC using each stock’s 1,3, 5 and 10-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR). I will call these new metrics 10YOC1, 10YOC3, 10YOC5, and 10YOC10 for simplicity.
Next, I wanted to look to see if the DGR was increasing or decreasing. I highlighted in red the 10-year YOC’s of companies that were both reducing their rate of increases and still under 10%.
This is a previous example of how it looked:
Keep in mind that this is just a starting point and I feel these companies need further research before making an investment.You can find previous months by following my CCC Rankings label.
*photo courtesy of ESPN